War and Competitive Economy: Lessons for Iran from Regional and Conflict-Hit Countries
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have reshaped competition policy from a technical matter into a strategic survival tool. The IMF warns that regional conflicts continue to threaten stability, with MENA growth falling to 3.2% in 2025. Amid missile exchanges and Hormuz Strait tensions, regional states are accelerating competition reforms instead of retreating. Saudi Arabia processed 271 merger cases in 2025 and launched a regional capacity-building program for 18 MENA countries. The UAE enacted merger-control regulations allowing English-language filings to attract foreign investors. Egypt raised anti-competitive fines to 15% of turnover or EGP 700 million and doubled merger thresholds. Kuwait and Iraq also took initial steps.
Lessons from Conflict Zones
Ukraine suspended competition enforcement briefly after Russia’s invasion but quickly issued new merger guidelines under martial law, signaling that monopoly oversight cannot be abandoned even in war. Israel facilitated emergency cooperation among firms but fined El Al Airlines $39 million for exploitative pricing during conflict, sending a strong deterrent. Russia’s shift to state-directed planning under sanctions reduced productivity and deepened oil dependence. Lebanon’s competition law remains stalled since 2019 amid economic collapse. Syria faces a paradox: opening markets without domestic support risks collapse, yet state monopolies hinder post-war recovery. The key insight: competition policy in crisis is a strategic instrument, not a luxury. Countries balancing essential cooperation with anti-abuse oversight show greater resilience.
Iran’s Crisis and Recommendations
Iran faces sanctions, inflation above 50%, a plummeting rial (USD/IRR exceeding 180,000), and 22 consecutive months of manufacturing contraction (PMI 43). The IMF forecasts 0.6% growth in 2025; the World Bank predicts -1.1%. “Resistance economy” policies have sometimes replaced competition with state or quasi-state monopolies, lowering quality. Proposed reforms include: a legal framework for competition authorities during emergencies, stricter oversight of monopolistic pricing on essentials, separating competition policy from industrial support, conditioning state aid on productivity gains, reforming costly subsidies, active participation in regional OECD/MENA competition forums, and guaranteeing institutional independence for competition bodies. Smart competition oversight can curb inflation, improve quality, attract investment, and build economic resilience against external shocks.